Arusberita.id – Survei Litbang Kompas yang dilakukan 27 Juli – 7 Agustus 2023 menunjukkan adanya peningkatan signifikan dalam elektabilitas Ganjar Pranowo.
Peningkatan ini ternyata didorong oleh dukungan dari pemilih pemula yang sebelumnya cenderung meninggalkan Ganjar.
Menurut laporan Litbang Kompas, pada awal 2023 Ganjar Pranowo menduduki posisi teratas dalam peta elektabilitas calon presiden (capres) dengan angka 25,3 persen.
Pada survei itu, sekitar 22,4 persen dari pemilih pemula mendukung Ganjar. Namun, semua berubah saat survei Juni 2023. Elektabilitas Ganjar turun menjadi 22,8 persen dan dukungan dari pemilih pemula juga merosot menjadi 20,9 persen.
Pada saat yang sama, pemilih pemula lebih banyak beralih mendukung Prabowo, yang elektabilitasnya mengungguli Ganjar pada survei bulan Juni 2023.
Litbang Kompas sendiri mencatat sekitar 25,5 persen dari total pemilih yang mendukung Prabowo pada saat itu adalah pemilih pemula.
Walakin, dalam survei terbaru edisi Agustus 2023, elektabilitas Ganjar Pranowo mengalami rebound mencapai 24,9 persen, dan kembali menduduki peringkat teratas.
Tidak hanya itu, proporsi pemilih pemula yang mendukung Ganjar juga meningkat menjadi sekitar 23,2 persen.
Di sisi lain, proporsi pemilih pemula yang mendukung Prabowo mengalami penurunan menjadi 19,1 persen.
“Peningkatan elektabilitas Ganjar pada survei terakhir ini sekaligus mengonfirmasikan kembalinya dukungan para pemilih pemula kepada dirinya,” tulis Litbang Kompas, dikutip JPNN.com, Senin (4/9).
Survei melalui wawancara tatap muka ini dilakukan Litbang Kompas pada 27 Juli-7 Agustus 2023 dan melibatkan 1.364 responden yang dipilih secara acak menggunakan metode pencuplikan sistematis bertingkat di 38 provinsi.
Metode ini menggunakan tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen, serta margin of error penelitian lebih kurang 2,65 persen dalam kondisi penarikan sampel acak sederhana.
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