Arusberita.id – Ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksi masih dapat tumbuh positif pada 2024. Menurut proyeksi beberapa lembaga internasional seperti IMF, World Bank, ADB, OECD dan Fitch Ratings, ekonomi Indonesia bisa tumbuh di level sekitar 5% tahun ini.
Chief Economist Citibank NA Indonesia (Citi Indonesia) Helmi Arman juga memperkirakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berkisar 5% di tahun ini. Hal tersebut didorong dari selesainya Pemilihan Umum (Pemilu) yang lebih cepat dalam satu putaran.
“Terlebih lagi, kalau kita lihat manifesto Presiden terpilih mengedepankan keberlanjutan berbagai kebijakan pemerintahan pak Jokowi. Ini membuka jalan untuk percepatan pemulihan stimulus investasi sektor swasta,” kata Helmi dalam agenda konferensi pers di Jakarta, Selasa (2/4).
Helmi memaparkan, sektor penopang pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini berasal dari industri manufaktur, terutama logam dasar. Dirinya menilai nilai tambah (added value) dari sektor tersebut selalu bertambah setiap tahunnya.
“Jadi kalau 2-3 tahun lalu Indonesia mengekspor nikel dalam bentuk stainless steel dan nikel pig iron, selama 1-2 tahun terakhir value added sudah mulai meningkat lagi ke logam yang kandungan nikelnya lebih tinggi seperti produk nikel sulfat dan nikel matte,” ucapnya.
Selain manufaktur, lanjutnya, sektor energi intensif seperti pulp and paper juga bakal menjadi salah satu penopang perekonomian Indonesia. Pasalnya, sejak perang Rusia-Ukraina sejumlah industri kertas di Eropa banyak yang tutup sehingga kebutuhan akan produk tersebut mengharuskan impor dari berbagai negara termasuk Indonesia.
“Sejak perang Rusia-Ukraina, ekspor RI untuk produk yang energi intensif seperti pulp and paper itu juga meningkat signifikan karena memang di Eropa kegiatan produksi sektor itu banyak yang tutup, sehingga banyak mereka cari supplier dari luar negeri salah satunya Indonesia,” ujarnya.
Helmi mengungkapkan sektor konstruksi juga bakal tumbuh positif di tahun ini karena adanya pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) yang semakin masif.
“Dengan turunnya ketidakpastian politik, sektor properti bisa lebih menggeliat. Jadi ini juga seharusnya bisa menopang sektor konstruksi,” tuturnya.
Wakil Direktur Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Eko Listiyanto memproyeksikan ekonomi RI tumbuh lebih rendah yakni di level 4,8% di tahun 2024. Dirinya menyatakan sektor penopang perekonomian RI bakal berasal dari industri makanan dan industri logam.
“Tingkat pertumbuhan ini lebih rendah dari target pemerintah dalam asumsi makro APBN 2024 sebesar 5,2%,” jelasnya kepada Kontan, Selasa (2/4).
Eko menuturkan, faktor tekanan daya beli masyarakat bawah, moderatnya laju pertumbuhan kredit ke sektor riil, serta berakhirnya windfall harga komoditas mentah global menjadi bagian dari gambaran kinerja ekonomi 2024 mendatang.
Kepala Ekonom Bank Central Asia (BCA) David Sumual memproyeksikan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi RI bisa mencapai level 5%-5,2% di tahun ini. Ia menyampaikan pertumbuhan tersebut bakal ditopang investasi hilirisasi mineral dan pertanian.
“Selain itu, faktor pendorongnya adalah sektor konsumsi termasuk makanan dan minuman,” kata David kepada Kontan, Selasa (2/4).
Lebih lanjut, David mengungkapkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi juga kemungkinan masih terkendala permintaan global yang lemah dan menunggu kebijakan dari program yang diselenggarakan pemerintahan berikutnya.
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