Arusberita.id – Neraca perdagangan Indonesia pada Desember 2023 kembali mencatatkan surplus sebesar USD 3,31 miliar, atau naik sebesar USD 0,90 miliar secara bulanan. Artinya, neraca perdagangan Indonesia kembali surpus selama 44 bulan berturut-turut sejak Mei 2020.
“Dengan demikian Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia telah mencatatkan surplus selama 44 bulan berturut-turut sejak Mei 2020,” kata Deputi Bidang Statistik dan Jasa BPS, Pudji Ismatini dalam konferensi pers, Senin (15/1/2024).
Pudji mengatakan, surplus bulan Desember 2023 meningkat jika dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, namun lebih rendah dibandingkan bulan yang sama pada tahun lalu.
BPS mencatat, surplus neraca perdagangan pada Desember 2023 ini lebih ditopang oleh surplus komoditas non migas yaitu sebesar USD 5,20 miliar dengan komoditas penyumbang surplus utamnya adalah bahan bakar mineral, lemak dan minyak hewan atau nabati, kemudian besi dan baja.
“Surlus Neraca Perdagangan nonmigas Desember 2023 lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan bulan lalu, namun lebih rendah dengan Desember tahun 2022,” ujarnya.
Sementara itu, pada saat yang sama neraca perdagangan komoditas migas tercatat defisit USD 1,89 miliar dengan komoditas penyumbang defisit adalah hasil minyak dan minyak mentah.
“Defisit neraca perdagangan migas Desember 2023 ini lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya, namun lebih tinggi dibandingkan bulan yang sama pada tahun lalu,” ujarnya.
Secara kumulatif hingga Desember 2023, total surplus neraca dagang Indonesia mencapai USD 36,93 miliar atau lebih rendah sekitar USD 17,52 miliar atau 33,46 persen jika dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.
Ekonom Ramal Surplus Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia Berlanjut di Desember 2023
Sebelumnya, Kepala Ekonom Bank Permata Josua Pardede memproyeksikan surplus neraca perdagangan akan berlanjut di bulan Desember 2023, meskipun dengan nilai yang menurun.
“Neraca perdagangan diperkirakan surplus USD 2,00 miliar, turun dari surplus USD2,41 miliar pada bulan November 2023. Dengan demikian,neraca perdagangan sepanjang tahun 2023 diperkirakan berkisar USD35,63 miliar, lebih rendah dari surplus perdagangan tahun 2022 sebesar USD54,46 miliar,” kata Josua Pardede kepada Liputan6.com.
Disisi lain, menurutnya meskipun harga komoditas relatif stabil di bulan Desember 2023, terutama komoditas ekspor utama seperti batu bara dan CPO, PMI manufaktur mitra dagang utama Indonesia menunjukkan penurunan, mengindikasikan perlambatan permintaan global.
Josua juga memperkirakan ekspor bulan Desember 2023 mengalami kontraksi -7,61 persen yoy, dibandingkan dengan -8,56 persen yoy pada bulan sebelumnya. Oleh karena itu, kinerja ekspor untuk sepanjang tahun 2023 diperkirakan -11,48 persen yoy, dibandingakan laju pertumbuhan ekspor tahun 2022 yang tercatat 26,05 persen yoy.
harga batu Bara
Kendati ada kenaikan harga batubara di bulan Desember 2023, karena peningkatan permintaan musiman selama musim dingin dan harga CPO yang relatif stabil yang dipengaruhi oleh dampak El Nino di sisi pasokan, permintaan global cenderung melemah. Lantaran PMI manufaktur di AS dan China terus melemah di bulan Desember 2023, keduanya mencatatkan indeks di bawah 50.
Sementara itu, kinerja impor diperkirakan akan tumbuh sekitar 0,74 persen yoy, melambat dari 3,29 persen yoy pada bulan November 2023. Secara keseluruhan pada tahun 2023, impor diperkirakan akan menurun lebih rendah daripada ekspor, dengan mengalami kontraksi sebesar -6,35 persen dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan 21,03 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 2022.
“Kontraksi laju impor yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kontraksi ekspor dipengaruhi oleh permintaan domestik yang terus menguat terindikasi dari PMI Manufaktur Indonesia meningkat dari 51,7 pada November 2023 menjadi 52,2 pada Desember 2023,” ujarnya.
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