Arusberita.id – Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) dan Greenpeace Indonesia memaparkan proyeksi positif dari ekonomi hijau. Transisi dari ekonomi ekstraktif ke ekonomi yang lebih ramah lingkungan justru menguntungkan negara.
“PDB (produk domestik bruto) yang diciptakan Rp2.943 triliun atau hampir Rp3.000 triliun dalam 10 tahun ke depan,” kata Direktur Celios Bhima Yudhistira dalam konferensi pers di Senayan, Jakarta Selatan, Selasa, 19 Desember 2023.
Bhima mengatakan angka itu hampir dua kali lipat dibanding pemerintah tetap menjalankan ekonomi ekstraktif. Ekonomi itu mencakup minyak dan gas (migas), nikel, hingga batu bara.
“Kalau ekonominya begini-begini saja, PDB-nya hanya Rp1.843 triliun. Kalau bergerak ke ekonomi hijau ada Rp3.000 triliun potensi ekonominya,” ujar dia.
Bhima menjelaskan perhitungan potensi PDB tersebut. Celios dan Greenpeace menggunakan model input-output untuk melihat dampak berganda pada input investasi langsung.
Lantas, mereka menggunakan dua asumsi skenario sebagai perbandingan dengan tenggat waktu masing-masing 10 tahun.
Asumsi pertama, yakni ada keseriusan politik dari pemerintah menjalankan ekonomi hijau. Termasuk, adanya komitmen pendanaan hijau dari perbankan, lembaga pembiayaan, serta kebijakan fiskal dan moneter.
Asumsi skenario kedua ialah pemerintah tetap menjalankan ekonomi ekstraktif atau disebut sebagai business as usual (BAU). Artinya ekonomi Indonesia ditopang dari sektor migas hingga batu bara.
“Ekonomi hijau punya dampak positif bagi pertanian, kehutanan, dan kelautan. Jadi untuk menjawab PDB tinggi dan berkualitas, mau tidak mau harus transisi ke ekonomi hijau,” papar Bhima.
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