Survei Litbang “Kompas”: Elektabilitas Ganjar dan Prabowo Bersaing Ketat

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Arusberita.id – Survei Litbang Kompas yang digelar pada 27 Juli hingga 7 Agustus 2023 menunjukkan, elektabilitas bakal calon presiden dari PDI-P Ganjar Pranowo bersaing ketat dengan bakal calon presiden dari Partai Gerindra Prabowo Subianto.

Berdasarkan hasil survei, Ganjar tercatat unggul tipis dari Prabowo, baik dalam simulasi terbuka, 10 nama, 5 nama, maupun 3 nama, meski selisihnya masih dalam rentang margin of error.

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“Dalam survei terbaru Kompas, elektabilitas Ganjar Pranowo di angka 24,9 persen, Prabowo Subianto 24,6 persen, dan Anies Baswedan 12,7 persen,” tulis Litbang Kompas, dikutip dari Harian Kompas edisi Senin (21/8/2023).

Angka di atas merupakan hasil survei dalam simulasi pilihan terbuka di mana responden dapat menyebut siapa pun yang menurut mereka layak dipilih menjadi presiden.

Dalam simulasi 10 nama, lima nama, dan tiga nama, elektabilitas Ganjar juga bersaing ketat dengan prabowo.

Dalam skema 10 nama, misalnya, Ganjar mendapatkan 29,6 persen, sedangkan Prabowo 27,1 persen, dan Anies 15,2 persen. Kemudian, dalam skema lima nama, perolehan Ganjar 31,8 persen, Prabowo 27,8 persen, dan Anies 15,6 persen.

Kompas menyatakan, hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa hanya suara Ganjar yang tampak menanjak.

“Perubahan dari 10 ke lima nama itu relatif tidak mengubah suara untuk Prabowo dan Anies sehingga jarak keterpilihan Ganjar semakin lebar dengan Prabowo dan Anies,” tulis Litbang Kompas.

Sementara itu, dalam simulasi tiga nama, Ganjar mendapatkan elektabilitas 34,1 persen, unggul dari Prabowo yang punya 31,3 persen dan Anies 19,2 persen.

“Meski demikian, suara Ganjar dan Prabowo belum bisa dikatakan berbeda secara signifikan alias masih bersaing ketat,” tulis Litbang Kompas.

Survei ini dilakukan dengan tatap muka pada 27 Juli-7 Agustus 2023, melibatkan 1.364 responden di 38 provinsi yang tersebar di 331 desa/kelurahan di Indonesia, dengan margin of error +/- 2,65 persen.

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