Arusberita.id – Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) mencatat, posisi utang pemerintah hingga semester I-2024 atau per Juni 2024 mencapai Rp 8.444,87 triliun, naik 1,09% dibandingkan akhir Mei 2024 yang sebesar Rp 8.353,02 triliun.
Sementara itu, rasio utang pemerintah terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) sebesar 39,13%. Angka ini juga meningkat dari rasio utang terhadap PDB bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 38,71%.
Kepala Ekonom Bank Permata Josua Pardede menilai bahwa rasio utang pada periode tersebut masih dalam batas aman yang mengindikasikan bahwa pengelolaan utang masih prudent.
Namun, ke depannya arah rasio utang terhadap PDB akan sangat bergantung kepada proyeksi defisit fiskal ke depannya.
“Apabila defisit fiskal masih terjaga di bawah 3% terhadap PDB, kami melihat bahwa untuk rasio utang terhadap PDB masih akan tetap stabil,” ujar Josua kepada Kontan.co.id, Senin (29/7).
Apabila pemerintah mampu menjaga defisit fiskal di bawah 3% PDB, Josua memperkirakan rasio utang masih akan tetap berada pada kisaran 39% hingga 40% dari PDB.
“Belum ada indikasi bahwa kenaikan utang ini akan meningkat di atas level itu,” katanya.
Josua melihat, beban pembayaran utang masih akan cukup tinggi pada periode 2025 hingga 2026. Namun setelah itu, beban pembayaran utang pemerintah cenderung akan mulai melandai atau ada normalisasi.
Kendati begitu, Josua mengingatkan faktor pentingnya bahwa kenaikan utang pemerintah seharusnya juga diikuti dengan peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengingat akan menjadi salah satu hal yang dilihat oleh lembaga rating internasional.
“Kalau kenaikan utang tidak bisa merefleksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup solid tentunya ini akan menjadi pertanyaan besar bahwa produktivitas dari utang cenderung menurun, kalau pertumbuhan ekonomi kita hanya akan ada di kisaran 5%-an saja,” imbuhnya.
Untuk diketahui, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat, perekonomian Indonesia pada kuartal I-2024 tumbuh 5,11% secara year on year (YoY). Pertumbuhan ekonomi ini meningkat dari kuartal IV-2023 yang hanya 5,04%.
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