Arusberita.id – Sejumlah ekonom memperkirakan perekonomian Indonesia pada masa transisi kepemimpinan masih akan positif.
Ekonom LPEM FEB UI Teuku Riefky memperkirakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2024 masih akan berada pada angka 5%. Salah satu faktor yang akan mendorong pertumbuhan adalah konsumsi masyarakat seiring dengan perputaran uang yang meningkat pada periode pemilu.
“Jadi ini nanti akan muncul banyak spending (belanja) seperti percetakan maupun transportasi. Ini satu faktor yang mendorong lajunya pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2024,” ujar Riefky kepada Kontan.co.id, Minggu (24/12).
Namun, dari sisi investasi, dirinya melihat ada kemungkinan tertahan pada tahun depan lantaran banyak kebijakan yang masih mungkin akan tertunda penyusunan maupun perbaikannya selama transisi pemerintahan tersebut. Oleh karena itu, investor akan cenderung wait and see untuk menanamkan modalnya di dalam negeri.
Sementara itu, Riefky memperkirakan inflasi pada tahun depan masih akan berada pada kisaran 2,5% hingga 3,5% year on year.
Riefky berharap, transisi kepemimpinan pada tahun depan berjalan dengan baik dan tidak menimbulkan gejolak atau ketidakstabilan baik dari sisi politik maupun ekonomi. Selain itu, pemerintah juga bisa menjamin untuk terus melanjutkan program yang sudah baik dan mengevaluasi program yang dinilai belum cukup baik.
“Jadi memang ke depannya sih pasar melihat kira-kira yang terpilih (Presiden-Wakil Presiden) apakah akan mendorong program-program yang sesuai dengan perbaikan kondisi ekonomi,” kata dia.
Ekonom Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Yusuf Rendy Manilet mengatakan, pada tahun depan ketidakpastian dari perekonomian global masih relatif besar. Misalnya saja konflik geopolitik yang saat ini belum menemui titik terang.
Oleh karena itu, kondisi tersebut berdampak terhadap keputusan ataupun kebijakan perekonomian global yang tentu akan mempengaruhi banyak negara termasuk emerging markets, seperti Indonesia.
Di sisi lain, pada tahun depan tidak hanya Indonesia saja yang mengadakan tahun politik. Yusuf bilang, tahun politik juga berkaitan dengan ketidakpastian mengingat siapa yang akan terpilih dan bagaimana kebijakan yang dijalankan. Artinya, ketika ketidakpastian tersebut meningkat, maka dari sisi investasi umumnya investor akan mencari atau menempatkan asetnya pada instrumen yang sifatnya save haven.
“Artinya ada potensi pelarian modal dari negara-negara emerging markets jika kondisi ketidakpastian itu terjadi,” kata Yusuf.
Kendati begitu, Yusuf bilang, Indonesia diuntungkan lantaran proporsi dari perekonomian domestik ini relatif lebih besar yakni disumbang oleh investasi dan juga konsumsi rumah tangga.
Yusuf memperkirakan, konsumsi rumah tangga masih akan tetap stabil namun mempunyai kecenderungan melemah marginal. Hal ini disebabkan oleh faktor harga komoditas yang relatif akan mulai melandai atau tidak setinggi pada tahun ini maupun dua tahun lalu.
“Konsumsi barang-barang tahan lama seperti kendaraan ataupun properti juga berpotensi tertekan akibat tren ataupun kondisi suku bunga yang tinggi saat ini,” terang dia.
Adapun untuk pengeluaran konsumsi pada tahun politik masih akan memberikan dampak terbatas terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga secara keseluruhan. Sementara kondisi pertumbuhan yang stabil juga akan dialami oleh komponen investasi atau dalam hal ini Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB).
Yusuf menambahkan, dari sisi tren keberlanjutan investasi sebenarnya beberapa investasi seperti di industri logam dasar masih akan akan melanjutkan tren positif yang terjadi pada dua tahun terakhir. Meski begitu, kondisi perekonomian global yang tidak menentu pasti akan ikut mempengaruhi dinamika dari pertumbuhan investasi secara umum.
“Jadi secara umum kami menilai proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun 2024 berada di kisaran 4,9% hingga 5,0%,” katanya.
Dari sisi inflasi pada tahun depan, Yusuf memperkirakan masih akan tetap stabil. Namun pada awal tahun, fenomena ataupun dampak dari El Nino akan memberikan dorongan kenaikan harga terutama pada kuartal I-2024.
Oleh karena itu, hal tersebut harus diantisipasi mengingat pada akhir kuartal I-2023 masyarakat muslim di Indonesia mulai akan merayakan Ramadan.
“Kita tahu bulan Ramadan itu juga kerap kali mendorong peningkatan permintaan yang bisa mendorong inflasi umum secara keseluruhan,” katanya.
Greetings! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
depo-medrol generic name – methylprednisolone generic name cost aristocort 4mg
clarinex usa – loratadine order online priligy 60mg us
Thanks for any other informative blog. The place else could I am getting that type of info written in such an ideal means? I have a mission that I am just now running on, and I have been on the glance out for such info.
Keep up the great work, I read few blog posts on this internet site and I conceive that your website is really interesting and has bands of wonderful info .
I truly appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You’ve made my day! Thank you again!
Simply wanna remark on few general things, The website design and style is perfect, the content is real wonderful. “The way you treat yourself sets the standard for others.” by Sonya Friedman.
Can I just say what a relief to find someone who actually knows what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I cant believe youre not more popular because you definitely have the gift.
Hello my loved one! I want to say that this article is awesome, nice written and come with approximately all significant infos. I would like to peer extra posts like this .
I’ll right away grasp your rss as I can not to find your email subscription hyperlink or e-newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Kindly allow me recognize in order that I may just subscribe. Thanks.
cytotec 200mcg oral – buy diltiazem 180mg generic order diltiazem pill
Precisely what I was searching for, thanks for putting up.
zovirax 800mg canada – buy cheap generic zovirax order rosuvastatin 10mg online
Fantastic web site. Lots of useful info here. I¦m sending it to several friends ans also sharing in delicious. And naturally, thanks to your effort!
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will certainly return.
order domperidone generic – tetracycline 250mg tablet cyclobenzaprine 15mg cheap
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I do not know who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉 Cheers!
naturally like your web site but you have to test the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very troublesome to inform the reality then again I’ll surely come again again.
I am just writing to make you be aware of of the terrific discovery my friend’s princess encountered visiting the blog. She picked up plenty of details, including what it is like to possess an excellent teaching spirit to get men and women smoothly completely grasp a number of tortuous issues. You truly exceeded our own expectations. Thanks for producing such beneficial, healthy, explanatory as well as cool tips about your topic to Julie.
domperidone price – buy sumycin 250mg pills cyclobenzaprine 15mg cheap
I have been examinating out many of your stories and it’s pretty nice stuff. I will definitely bookmark your website.
naturally like your web site but you need to check the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very troublesome to tell the truth nevertheless I’ll certainly come back again.
Perfect piece of work you have done, this internet site is really cool with wonderful info .
buy propranolol pills – buy plavix pills for sale methotrexate cost
I?¦ve read a few good stuff here. Definitely price bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how much attempt you put to make this type of magnificent informative web site.
I appreciate, cause I found just what I was looking for. You’ve ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye
Magnificent web site. Lots of useful information here. I am sending it to a few buddies ans also sharing in delicious. And of course, thank you in your effort!
Keep up the excellent work, I read few articles on this web site and I think that your web site is really interesting and holds lots of good information.
how to buy coumadin – medex online buy losartan 50mg tablet
order nexium 20mg sale – nexium buy online sumatriptan 50mg ca
buy levofloxacin 500mg online cheap – levaquin brand zantac for sale online
Hi my friend! I wish to say that this post is awesome, nice written and come with approximately all important infos. I?¦d like to peer more posts like this .
Hmm it seems like your site ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any recommendations for rookie blog writers? I’d certainly appreciate it.
buy generic meloxicam for sale – flomax price buy flomax cheap
219042 497414I like this weblog really much so significantly excellent info . 215732
374054 328639This design is spectacular! You obviously know how to maintain a reader amused. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own weblog (effectively, almostHaHa!) Fantastic job. I actually enjoyed what you had to say, and far more than that, how you presented it. Too cool! 426245
526574 518303You got a quite amazing website, Glad I observed it via yahoo. 231858
482336 250535I think one of your advertisements triggered my internet browser to resize, you may want to put that on your blacklist. 42178